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For years and until as recently as this summer, Hank Paulson, Ben Bernake, and other Bush Administration officials, have been telling the American public and the world that the U.S. economy was sound. They arrogantly dismissed calls for greater regulation of banks or government help in easing the mortgage crisis.
"We don't see the turn down in housing prices as a broad financial concern or a major factor in assessing the course of the economy." -- Ben Bernake, Chairman Federal Reserve, February 28, 2007
As recently as May 6, 2008, Paulson, Bernake, and other Bush administration officials opposed legislation which would have provided 15 billion dollars to cities and neighborhoods destroyed by foreclosures and owners losing their homes. Bush vetoed the bill because he said it will be "a burdensome bailout" that puts taxpayers at risk.
Less than 3 months later, Paulson, Bernake, and President Bush asked American taxpayers to give $700 Billion dollars to the same bankers who had kicked millions of Americans out of their homes. The plea for help came with a threat, a warning, and a 3 page proposal giving Frank Paulson, the former CEO of Goldman Sachs (on leave) dictatorial power to spend $700 billion dollars any way he saw fit.
Taxpayers must come to the rescue, we have been told, or suffer a financial catastrophe so profound it could end American civilization was we know it.
The Bush administration used similar fear tactics to stampede the American congress and the American people into a financially ruinous war with Iraq. The alternative was to be killed by weapons of mass destruction which we later learned did not exist.
However, private contractors with links to the Bush administration, and Haliburton, which Vice-President Cheney ruled as CEO, made billions of dollars because of the war with Iraq; a war which most experts believed was waged incompetently.
It is the same incompetent Bush administration, aided by the unparalled greed of banks and Bankers which got America into this financial mess; because of get rich schemes based on risky investments, and bad mortgage loans. Should they be trusted to solve the problems they created?
A 2006 article in Business Week, titled "Wall Street's culture of risk" stated that "Goldman Sachs' CEO Henry M. Paulson Jr. has led the charge."
In July of 2005, Henry Paulson as CEO of Goldman Sachs, securitized $68 Billion in residential mortgages, many of which are now in default. Capital risk at Goldman Sach also increased by 135% under Paulson who shifted his bank's focus to the most dangerous and risky forms of investing. If there is no taxpayer bailout, Goldman Sachs could lose a lot of money.
How much of Paulson's $600 Million dollar personal fortune is also risk, is unknown. What we do know is that Paulson demands that he be given unlimited power to spend $700 Billion dollars, because people just like Henry Paulson may lose millions of dollars.
Paulson represents the very mindset of greed which led to this catastrophe, making huge financial bets on a vast array of risky ventures and arcane products like credit-default swaps and catastrophe bonds, using incredible sums of money borrowed from other banks. Paulson, Goldman Sachs, and many of the banks which are now in financial peril began spending billions to buy business in Brazil, Jakarta, China, and hundreds of other countries, which they hoped to immediately sell at a profit. Instead, they lost money. Goldman Sachs private equity arm under Paulson became one of the bigest buyout firms in the world, and like so many other banks, they made investments that would be extremely difficult to get rid of in the event of a disaster. They were betting that the U.S. government, and the American tax payers would come to their rescue if their bets did not pay off. They lost their bets and are now demanding the American taxpayer pay the bill.
But these unpleasant truths are not being told to the American public. Instead they are warned that their jobs, their credit cards, their savings, their IRAs and 401Ks, and even their own homes are at risk. Unless we given $700 billion dollars to the rich, the average American will no longer be able to buy a home or a car unless they pay cash. The economy will grind to a near halt, unemployment will skyrocket, you will lose your job and no longer be able to feed your family.
The bankers, led by Paulson, Bernake, and Bush, are threatening to hold the economy hostage, threatening that if the American tax payer does not come up with the money, there will be a financial meltdown and the entire world economy would collapse.
But is any of this true? Will the 700 billion dollar giveaway turn the economy around, or will it only make the richer even richer?
This summer the government created an economy stimulus package that had no effect on the economy. Moreover, the US government has already budgeted or given away over $565 billion to Wall Street and the problem has only gotten worse. this includes a $200 billion for mortgage-backed securities; $200 billion for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; $85 billion for the takeover of the AIG insurance giant; $50 billion to shore up money market funds; $30 billion to JPMorgan for the takeover of Bear Stearns, and the list goes on. But none of these expenditures of taxpayer money had any effect, other than to put more money into the pockets of the extremely wealthy.
Why should we believe than another $700 Billion will suddenly solve the problem?
Are we even being told the truth about the "problem"?
Many suspect this is yet another "get rich scheme" by those who are already incredibly wealthy. Its the rich robbing from the poor all over again.
Consider, for example, one of the major provisions of the "bail out" program which gives Paulson the powers of the ultimate dictator answerable to no one.
“Sale of Mortgage-Related Assets. The Secretary may, at any time, upon terms and conditions and at prices determined by the Secretary, sell, or enter into securities loans, repurchase transactions or other financial transactions in regard to, any mortgage-related asset purchased under this Act.” This means he can buy and sell at any price he chooses. Moreover, there will be no supervision, he is answerable to no one, and his decisions cannot be overturned or challenged in court.
Thus, Paulson can buy junk from his banker friends for whatever price they want and then sell it back to them at a bargain. If its worth 30 cents on the dollar, he can pay 90 cents on the dollar. Then Paulson can sell the same junk at a loss for 20 cents on the dollar, saddling the taxpayers with the loss. And he can continue until all 700 billion dollars are gone: Buy for 60 cents on the dollar, sell for 30 cents on the dollar. Buy for 80 cents on the dollar, sell for 5 cents on the dollar. He’s in charge, and he is answerable to no one. No oversight. No limitations.
And then, after he steals us blind, Paulson returns as CEO of Goldman Sachs.
Paulson has also demanded the right to hire private asset managers to carry out the purchase of some $700 billion in "troubled" securities. However, again, only he will have the power of hiring and fireing. The asset managers will also be above the law and answerable only to Paulson. Thus, Paulson can hire the same firms that are being bailed out to handle their own rescue using taxpayer money any way they see fit, including setting their own salaries and buying and selling at any price they want. Its little more than legalized theft and fraud.
But what of those mortgage backed securities which the government decides to keep, claiming them as future assets? Won't the taxpayers make money? If the mortgage debt continues to lose value, then the answere is "no, the American taxpayer will lose money." And not just the taxpayer but the the U.S. which would have to record those losses as spending. That could increase the budget deficit, which leads to higher taxes.
In fact, this bailout may make the economy much worse, and trigger the destruction it was meant to prevent. if the bailout goes through we are looking at the possibility of a super-inflation and a collapse in the value of the dollar. The Federal debt will explode, increasing the accumulated national debt to over $11 trillion dollars. The Treasury will solve this problem by printing more money, creating a super-hyperinflation, and further collapse of the value of the dollar. How will this effect the international financial markets? Foreign investors will no longer trust the US, or U.S. banks and will withdraw their money and invest and loan their money elsewhere.
Paulson, Bush, Bernake are willing to put the entire future of America at risk with a program which will only benefit the very rich. And just as they used fear to frighten Americans into accept a fraudulent war against Iraq to get rid of weapons that did not exist, they are again warning of disaster unless they are given dictatorial powers to spend almost 1 trillion dollars any way they please.
The fear tactics are having little effect on persuading American taxpayers that they should ride to the rescue of the rich. Phone calls to Senators and congressmen are running 200 to 1 against the Bailout. Yet, Democrats, including California Senators Diane Feinstein and Barbara Boxer, Senate Leader Henry Reid, and congresswoman and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi have chosen to ignore the voters and are leading the charge to save Wall Street.
But why would these elected representatives ignore the wishes of the voters? Nancy Pelosi is worth over $100 million dollars, and almost every senator and congressman in support of the bailout are millionaires.
The history of the world is a history of the rich stealing from the poor. Why should we expect this bailout program to be any different?
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Hank Paulson and other Treasure & Bush Administration officials, have been telling the American public that the economy was sound. And then last month, CEO of Goldman Sachs (on Leave) warned of a financial armegeddon -- complete financial collapse unless we give Hank Paulson, CEO of Goldman Sachs on leave, unprecedented authority to spend $700 Billion Dollars belonging to the American taxpayers, on a bailout plan designed to save the rich.
Republicans are not happy. Democrats are in a panic. Its "Awe and Shock" campaign all over again, except this time the target in the wallet of the American taxpayer.
Paulson's proposal is 3 pages in length. Here are some of the important points:
1) “The Secretary’s authority to purchase mortgage-related assets under this Act shall be limited to 700,000,000,000 dollars outstanding at any one time.” Moreover, there will be no supervision, he is answerable to no one, and his decisions cannot be overturned or challenged in court.
2) “Sale of Mortgage-Related Assets. The Secretary may, at any time, upon terms and conditions and at prices determined by the Secretary, sell, or enter into securities loans, repurchase transactions or other financial transactions in regard to, any mortgage-related asset purchased under this Act.”
Thus, Paulson can buy junk from his banker friends for whatever price they want. If its worth 30 cents on the dollar, he can pay 90 cents on the dollar. Then Paulson can sell the same junk at a loss for 20 cents on the dollar, saddling the taxpayers with the loss. And he can continue until all 700 billion dollars are gone: Buy for 60 cents on the dollar, sell for 30 cents on the dollar. Buy for 80 cents on the dollar, sell for 5 cents on the dollar. He’s in charge, and he is answerable to no one.No oversight. No limitations. Hank Paulson could simply give the nation’s treasure to Goldman Sachs.
And yet, its Paulson and gang who got us into this mess --- or rather got the bankers into this mess, which the taxpayers must now bail out.
January 29, 2007: "One of the pleasant surprises I had coming to government has been how strong our economy is." -Henry Paulson
April 2007:“I don’t see (subprime mortgage market troubles) imposing a serious problem. I think it’s going to be largely contained."
May 2007: "Fortunately for us, we have a very diverse, healthy economy. …So my very strong view is that we are near the bottom and that this will be contained as — the housing will be contained, and we’re fortunate that we have a diverse, healthy economy."
Therefore, either Paulson didn't see this coming, which makes him incompetent, or he was not being truthful. Should we trust him now?
Paulson also wants to bail out foreign banks. Yes, foreign bank! Why? Paulson is still CEO of Goldman Sachs. January 2006, Goldman Sachs purchased a stake in the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), China’s biggest bank, for $2.58 billion. According to press reports, Mr. Paulson’s personal stake in this transaction was $25 million. in May 2006, Goldman Sachs helped with the underwriting of the Bank of China’s IPO, listing $9.7 billion worth of its shares on Hong Kong’s stock exchange.
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April 27, 2006: "A slow down in housing prices is unlikely" -- Ben Bernake, Fed Chairman
September 1, 2006: There is no evidence of home prices topping out. On the contrary, home price increases continue to accellerate." --Bush Administration
January 29, 2007: "One of the pleasant surprises I had coming to government has been how strong our economy is." -Henry Paulson
February 22, 2007. HSBC's mortgage losses reach 10.5 billion.
February 28, 2007 "We don't see the turn down in housing prices as a broad financial concern or a major factor in assessing the course of the economy." -- Ben Bernake, Fed Chairman
April 27, 2007. New Century Financial files for bankruptcy because of billions of dollars in losses for bad loans.
August 6, 2007: American Home Mortage, fles for bankruptcy.
August 31, 2007: Americanquest goes out of business.
September 30, 2007: UBS announces 3rd quarter losses of 690 Million.
January 15, 2008: Citigroup announces 9.6 Billion in losses.
March 16, 2008: Senator McCain calls for "removing regulatory accounting and tax impediments to raising capital.
April 29, 2008: Foreclosures up 112% Compared to 2007.
May 6, 2008: Bush announces he will veto legislation directing 15 billion dollars to cities and neighborhoods destroyed by foreclosures, because, he says it will be "a burdensome bailout" that puts taxpayers at risk.
September 7, 2008: US Government takes over Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac
Sep 15, 2008: Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy.
Sep 16, 2008 ... US Government bails out American International Group purchases 80% stake in failing company.
September, 2008: Bush & Paulson announces $700 Billion Dollar Rescue for Banks, Bankers, Rich People, Corporations, Foreign Banks
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The Decline of the American Empire?
Many financial experts believe
America's status as the world's sole superpower has nearly come to an
end. The future of the Earth will be a multi-power world dominated by
China, America, a unified Europe, and a resurgent Russia. India, Brazil,
Iran, and South Africa will also be major players on a future world stage,
according to many experts. All these emerging markets and the changing
world order provide incredible business opportunities, especially in the
realms of 1) Domestic Consumer goods, 2) Energy, 3) Food, 4) Defense.
The decline of the US, many believe, are due to a number of major
mistakes and errors of judgement made by the Bush administration.
Many believe Bush with his war in Iraq and unrealistic tax cuts,
turned the U.S. into a debtor nation, with China and Russia holding
most of the debt. This gives Russia and China tremendous power over
America and its policies.
World superpowers tend to be net lenders, not bowers. Borrowing means
financial weakness. At the turn of 20th Century, Britain, a world superpower,
became a net debtor and borrower. Who did they borrow from? The U.S.
which became a world superpower.
Who holds much of America's debt? Who do they borrow from? China
and Russia. If China and Russia stopped lending, inflation in the US
would skyrocket, and there would be a significant appreciation in the
U.S. dollar killing its ability to export goods and making the products
of competitors much cheaper in comparison. That's a lot of power to
give to your rivals and competitors.
Perceived weakness of an adversary will be exploited by competitors.
Thus a paranoid Russia, seeing itself encircled by NATO, but perceiving
weakness in America, marched into Georgia and occupied a country
America claims as one of its Allies. Russia has also threatened to target
Poland with nuclear weapons if America places missiles in that country.
Turmoil on the world stage and a McCain presidency means increases
in defense spending.
Investing in companies specializing in military hardware is a risky
business. Yet, there is always an insatiable hunger for the latest weapons.
If John McCain wins the presidency of the U.S., many experts believe a
resurgence and increase in military spending. Why? Because the US
relied excessively on unilateral, go-it-alone military force in Iraq and
Afghanistan, wearing out its Armed Forces, borrowing $800 billion
a year, and spending itself into a 2.5 trillion dollar debt. Russia is now exploiting that weakness.
A wounded, weakened nation, feeling surrounded by enemies, may feel an increased need to protect itself and divert even more money for defense.
Turmoil and uncertainty also means increases in the price of food and
energy and declines in domestic consumer spending.
If Obama is elected we can see a reversal in some of America's ruinous
economic policies. The unsustainable tax cuts of the Bush administration
may be reversed, and taxes on business and the "rich" will go up. Military
spending may not necessarily decline. Obama is promising to expand the
war in Afghanistan. However, domestic spending, particularly on the
nation's infrastructure, roads,bridges, public works, will certainly go up.
This means steal, concrete, lumber...
Who ever is elected, it will be a changing world. And change means
economic opportunity.
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& the Shortage of Women in Aging China
But who will care for China's elderly? Sons are expected to provide for their parents, but it is daughters and the wives of sons who typically provide the actual physical day-to-day care. China's "one-child" family-planning practice, and the preference for sons among Chinese, has resulted in a shortage of women. It is estimated there are 120 men for every 100 Chinese women, and by the most conservative estimates, this means 100 million Chinese men will go without wives. This will also translate into increased power in the hands of women who can be more selective about whom they marry and can demand and expect more from their husbands, such as greater control over household income and spending (e.g. beauty and health care products, domestic items, clothing). An aging population, with fewer women, fewer daughters, and fewer wives may also translate into tremendous economic growth in the "care for the elderly" industry. This would include 1) the medical and health industry which provides services which target an aging population. 2) nursing care homes which house, feed, nurse, and provide 24 hour care and supervision, 3) retirement communities." An aging population places increasing demands on the entire health care and medical industry and government services. Thus a growing, aging population provides incredible investment opportunities. |
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History shows us, however, that what goes up, often comes down; and this includes world powers and wealth. Yet, what goes down, can often bounce back up, even higher, taking investors and emerging powers on a whirl wind roller coaster ride to ever greater heights of prosperity. Maintaining China's amazing growth and its citizens quality of life will be a challenge to China's leaders. The challenges are many, and each challenge provides an opportunity for investors. Energy & The Environment The world's emerging economic powers, China, Europe, India, Brazil, South Africa, need energy and raw materials to grow. Yet, as these economies grow, they consume more and more, and global supplies of energy, food, water, and raw materials become more expensive and less abundant. The old law of supply and demand can only lead to higher prices as resources are depleted, and create turmoil in consumer confidence and the ability of a nation to grow. In America, the price of gasoline shot up to $4.50 a gallon this summer and the cost and price of goods went up and consumer confidence declined and domestic spending went down. China and other developing nations were also impacted. China was plagued by gasoline and energy shortages this summer which drove up costs, and resulted in a slight decline in its rate of growth. And not just the cost of energy and raw materials, but the cost and supply of farm and ranch land and the food and animals they grow, are significantly impacted. Everything costs more: food, water, gasoline, clothing. And as the standard of living in China, India, and other nations improve, their citizens will buy more, reducing supplies and driving up costs. Under these conditions, the rate of economic growth is always adversely effected. Recently we've seen a slight reduction in the cost of energy; but the prices are still 30% higher than last summer. As China and India continue to rapidly develop, their thirst for oil will soon surpass the US. Last year, China's 1.3 billion people consumed the equivalent of 1.4 tons of oil. However, as China and India grow, and if each of their citizens each consumed the same amount of energy as the typical resident of the U.S., then China and India will eventually consume twice as much energy as is currently consumed by the entire world. Five years from now, will the price of oil be $1,000 a barrel? What will this do to the word's economy? And what happens when the world begins to run out of oil? If a car runs out of gas, it stops. The emerging energy crises offers incredible opportunities for investors in the areas of food/agriculture and energy. Currently, the only viable alternatives are 1) Atomic Energy, 2) Green Power. Green power means wind, water, sunlight, and even turning food into gasoline. As energy supplies dwindle and prices go up, Green and atomic power alternatives will become cheap and inexpensive by comparison. Those who invest in emerging green power technologies today will become the billionaires of tomorrow. Green Power is the future, and in addition to IT and Telecom, clean technology is among the top three destinations for venture capital in China. High oil prices retard economic growth, and several "Clean Technology" companies in China have become very profitable as demand for clean alternatives increase. China will become a cleantech powerhouse in the next 20 years. Those who invest in green power not only help save the world, but may make a substantial profit.
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Have we hit bottom? Are we there yet? What comes down, sometimes bounces back up. According to new data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), sales of existing (used) homes increased by 3.1% in July. This is twice what analysts had predicted. More good news? New home sales, which make up 15% of the market, rose in July compared to June. Yet June sales were bad, very bad. June's annual rate was the lowest since September 1991. Is rising from "bad," to "not so bad," good? Have we reached bottom yet? According to the always optomistic NAR, the slight increase in sales may be a sign that the slowdown in housing market could be "near" a bottom. But "near" means we haven't hit bottom yet. Housing prices continue to fall. In July, the national median home price was $212,400. This is down 7.1 percent from $228,600 a year ago. Inventory is also incredibly high in July. There is now 11 month supply of houses on the market, and more houses are being offered every day. In fact, prices may continue to fall and inventory will continue to rise as banks are forced to sell more foreclosed homes at fire-sale prices. Economists at Lehman Brothers said they expect home prices to continue to fall until the end of 2009. It could get worse. Mortgage rates have increased, banks have tightened lending standards, and if interest rates go up just half a point, another hundred thousand home owners may lose their homes. Its a buyer's market, and if the patient buyer bides their time and keeps watching for those once-in-a-life-time opportunities, they may be able to snatch up the perfect property, at bargain prices. Remember, what hits bottom must eventually bounce back up. |
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Income in all major banks has also dropped by 87% compared to the same quarter last year. FDIC-insured lenders reported net income of $4.96 billion, down from $36.8 billion in the same quarter a year ago.
FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair was shocked and dismayed by the findings. "Quite frankly, the results were pretty dismal, and we don't see a return to the high earnings levels of previous years any time soon." What does this mean? Things are going to get worse in the USA. So far, 9 major banks have failed this year, including one of the largest federally insured banking institutions, California- based mortgage lender IndyMac Bancorp Inc. IndyMac was seized by U.S. regulators earlier this year and is seeking a buyer. So far, no takers. U.S. taxpayers will have to pony up at least 9 billion dollars to cover the losses for this bank alone. The FDIC expects financial conditions will grow much worse. Banks have been forced to set aside over 50 Billion dollars to cover expected losses; an increase of nearly 500% since last year. However, if these additional "problem banks" fail, the FDIC and the US taxpayer will have to foot the bill. The problem is, the US government does not have the money and economic conditions are expected only to grow worse. |
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Investing, Trading Education
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